The Arab Spring

Il ruolo di intelligence degli italiani apprezzato in massimo grado a livello occidentale e in particolare dagli americani. 

Corrado Cantatore e’ un personaggio molto conosciuto negli ambienti dell’intelligence internazionale. Non solo perche’ ha servito per anni come  liaison tra l’Ufficio del Direttore del SISMI (Italian Military Intelligence and Security Service) e tutte le Agenzie di Intelligence del Nord America.
Ma parlano per lui le sue incredibili esperienze come pilota di elicotteri e paracadutista, le sue missioni di salvataggio di civili e militari.  Press Officer and Intelligence Coordinator dal 1982 al 1984 del contingente italiano in LIbano ha servito come liaison officer per la ‘United Nations (UN) Interim Force’ in Libano (UNIFIL). Durante la sua gestione le truppe italiane non hanno subito alcuna perdita, nonostante l’attacco terroristico che e’ costato la morte di centinaia di soldati americani. Il Rotary Club di Washington DC lo ha invitato a tenere una lecture (molto applaudita) il cui testo riportiamo di seguito. Al termine, nel corso della sessione di domande e risposte, un alto ufficiale dell’aviazione americana e’ intervenuto sottolineando come il ruolo di intelligence degli italiani sia apprezzato in massimo grado a livello occidentale e in particolare dagli americani.

THE ARAB SPRING

GOOD MORNING LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, MY NAME IS CORRADO CANTATORE AND I AM THE CEO AND FOUNDER OF DICE INTERNATIONAL SECURITY SERVICES, AN INDIPENDENT COMPETITIVE INTELLIGENCE CONSULTING COMPANY.  MY WORKING EXPERIENCE HAS BEEN VERY SIMILAR TO THE HUNDREDS OF MY COLLEAGUES:  OFFICER WITH SPECIAL FORCES OF ITALIAN ARMY FIRST, THEN ATTACK HELICOPTER PILOT.RECRUITED BY THE ITALIAN INTELLIGENCE IN THE MIDDLE SEVENTIES, I HAVE BEEN OPERATING IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA FOR ABOUT 30 YEARS UNTIL I WAS POSTED IN WASHINGTON, DC AS THE CHIEF OF THE ITALIAN INTELLIGENCE STATION.  IN THAT POSITION, I WAS IN CHARGE OF THE LIAISON WITH THE 16 AMERICAN INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES. WHO REMEMBERS A MAN CALLED MOHAMMED BOUAZIZI? HE WAS A TUNISIAN FRUIT AND VEGETABLE SELLER WHO BURNED HIMSELF ON DECEMBER 17, 2010 TO PROTEST THE CONFISCATION OF HIS FRUITS AND VEGETABLES BY A WOMAN MUNICIPALITY AGENT.  MOHAMMED WAS THE BREADWINNER OF HIS FAMILY AND WAS SELLING VEGETABLES TO SURVIVE. HIS SUPREME SACRIFICE WAS THE STARTING POINT OF THE SO CALLED “ARAB SPRING”. AN UPRISING THAT IN 2 MONTHS OUSTED THE PRESIDENT OF TUNISIA, BEN ALI, AND A FEW MONTHS LATER IT SPREAD AROUND REACHING EGYPT, LYBIA, AND LITTLE BY LITTLE HAS TAKEN HOLD OF ALL THE MIDDLE EAST REGION.  NO COUNTRY IN THIS PART OF THE WORLD HAS BEEN IMMUNE TO THIS “WIND OF SPRING”.  TO A  DIFFERENT EXTENT, ALL NATIONS OF THE ARAB WORLD HAVE BEEN INVOLVED.  OF COURSE, IN THOSE COUNTRIES WITH WEAKER GOVERNMENTS, THE CHANGE WAS MORE DRASTIC. AN EXAMPLE OF THIS IS LIBYA  WHERE NATO COUNTRIES (ALTHOUGH FOR THEIR OWN INTERESTS) WERE LED BY FRANCE IN THEIR ASSISTANCE TO THE REBELS.

TO HAVE A POINT OF COMPARISON MORE UNDERSTANDABLE WE CAN SAY THAT THE ARAB SPRING HAS BEEN AS THE FRENCH REVOLUTION IN EUROPE IN 1989. BUT AS RETIRED INTELLIGENCE OFFICER I CAN NOT KEEP SILENT ABOUT SOME PIECES OF INFORMATION UPON WHICH THE ARABSPRING IT WAS NOT A  SPONTANEOUS MOVEMENT, BUT RATHER A NEO-COLONIALIST INSTRUMENTALISATION. IF ANYONE CARES ABOUT THESE THEORIES IS SUFFICIENT TO TAKE NOTE OF THE LINK HERE BELOW, AFTER YOU CONNECT WITH THE SITE OF “TUNISIA SECRET” YOU SHOULD REGISTER TO SEE THE VIDEO. AS WELL I CAN NOT BE SILENT ON THE FACT THAT MOST OF WHAT IS HAPPENING TODAY IN THE MIDDLE EAST IS TIEDTO A RACE TO EXPLOIT A HUGE GAS AND OIL FIELDS DISCOVERED IN THE EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN PROVINCE. THIS PERAPS GIVES  YOU A MORE COMPLETE PICTURE OF THE REGION WE ARE LOOKING TODAY …………. BUTTHIS IS ANOTHER STORY!

LET’S GO BACK TO THE ARAB SPRING. TO SEE THE FRUITS OF “ARAB SPRING” WE SHOULD EXPECT THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA TO TAKE THE SAME AMOUNT OF TIME THAT IT TOOK FRANCE TO STABILIZE FOLLOWING THEIR REVOLUTION OF 1799. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR THE ARAB SPRING TO TAKE LESS TIME THAN THE FRENCH DID, THANKS TO MODERN TECHNOLOGY AND COMMUNICATIONS. HOWEVER, UNFORTUNATELY, A LOT OF BLOOD HAS TO FLOW. IN THE ARAB WORLD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ALGERIA DUE TO ITS COMMUNIST CONNECTION WITH THE FORMER USSR, ALL COUNTRIES WERE GOVERNED BY DICTATORSHIPS OR MONARCHIES, SO THESE COUNTRIES HAD NO INTEREST IN STARTING STRUCTURAL REFORMS. SOMEONE COULD OJECT THE CASE OF THE ARAB EMIRATES, WHO USE THEIR OIL AND POSITION TO MODERNIZE THEIR STRUCTURE. THEY HAVE CAREFULLY MODERNIZED ON THE SURFACE, BECAUSE AT THE END OF THE DAY, ALL BELONGS TO THE KING. NO COUNTRY WANTS TO GO THROUGH A STRUCTURAL REFORM THAT MAY LESSEN THEIR CONTROL OF THE PEOPLE AND THE OIL.  THIS IS THE REASON WHY WHEN THE RECESSION HIT THE WPRLD IN 2008, ONLY THE ARABIC COUNTRIES RICH IN OIL WERE IN A WAY IMMUNE TO THE ECONOMIC DISASTER BECAUSE AS THE CRISIS BECAME WORSE, OIL PRICES ROSE BENEFITING OIL RICH COUNTRIES AND HURTING EVEN MORE THE OIL POOR.

THIS DISPARITY AMONG NEIGHBORING ARABIC COUNTRIES, WAS A MAJOR IGNITOR OF THE ARAB SPRING, WHICH WILL BECOME THE ARAB SUMMER, AUTUMN, AND WINTER WHICH WILL STAY FOR MANY YEARS TO COME.SOME OF YOU CAN OBJECT THAT IN TURKEY, THINGS ARE NOT GOING AS THE REST OF THE MIDDLE EAST. THE REASON FOR THIS IS THANKS TO MOUSTAFA KEMAL, NAMED ATATURK (THE FATHER OF TURKS).  MOUSTAFA WAS FOR TURKEY WHAT NAPOLEON WAS FOR FRANCE.  ATATURK ABOLISHED THE CALIPHATE (THE CALIPH WAS  KING IN THE FORMER ISLAMIC TURKISH EMPIRE AND HE HOLD IN HIS ANDS THE SECULAR AND CLERICAL POWER). ATATURK DIVIDED THEESE POWERS FOLLOWING tHE FRENCH MODEL.

TURKEY IS AHEAD OF OTHER ARAB COUNTRIES THAT FOR THE MOST PART ARE LEFT WITH AN ARCHAIC MONARCHY SYSTEMS, CORRUPTED BY WESTERN POWERS OVER THE YEARS FOR THE BENEFIT OF BUSINESSES AND PROFITS, NOT SO MUCH FOR THE BENEFIT OF THE PEOPLE.

SUMMARIZING: IF THE ARAB SPRING HAS BEEN FOR THE MIDDLE EAST LIKE THE FRENCH REVOLUTION (1789), THE RECENT UNREST IN TURKEY ARE COMPARABLE TO THOSE WHICH IN 1968 CROSSED THE UNITED STATES AND EUROPE. BUT WE MUST ALWAYS REMEMBER WHAT APPEND IN EGYPT AND THE TWO FACES OF ARAB SPRING.

IRAN – THE NUCLEAR TREATH

THE LAST PART OF OUR CONVERSATION TODAY WILL BE ABOUT IRAN.  I THINK IT IS THE MOST INTERESTING PART OF THE PRESENTATION FOR A SERIES OF ECONOMICAL AND POLITICAL REASONS THAT WILL HAVE THE MOST IMPACT ON OUR DAILY LIVES. THE SENTIMENT LEADING TO THE ARAB SPRING TOUCHED IRANIANS WAY BEFORE IT HIT THE ARAB. THIS IS BECAUSE THE PERSIAN CIVILIZATION HAS THOUSaND YEARS ADVANTAGE OVER THE ARAB WORLD.  AT A TIME WHEN PERSIA WAS A MAGNIFICENT EMPIRE, THE ARABS WERE STILL TRIBES NOMADS IN THE DESERT.ANOTHER IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE THAT SHOULD BE UNDERLINED IS THE ROLE PLAYED IN IRAN BY MOHAMMED MOSSADEQ.  AS ALWAYS THE HISTORY OF A COUNTRY IS WRITTEN BY ITS SONS. 30 YEARS AFTER ATATURK ENDED ITS INDEPENDENCE WAR IN TURKEY, MOSSADEQ BECOME PRIME MINISTE OF IRAN AND HE WAS ABLE TO END THE STRANGULATING AGREEMENT THE BRITISH HAD WITH IRAN FOR EXPLOITING THE RICH OIL RESERVE OF THAT COUNTRY. MOSSADEQ CANCELLED THE CONCESSION GIVEN TO THE BRITISH IN 1933, FROM THE SHAH REZA CHAN (THE FATHER OF REZA PAHLAVI, THE LAST SHAH).

MOSSADEQ IN THE 3 YEARS HE WAS PRIME MINISTER (1951-53) TOOK THE BRITISH BEFORE THE UNITED NATION, WAS RECEIVED BY PRESIDENT TRUMAN WHO ASSISTED HIM IN DISMANTLING OF THE AGLO-IRANIAN OIL COMPANY. BY DOING SO, HE NATIONALIZED THE OIL FIELDS AND FOUNDED THE NATIONAL IRANIAN OIL COMPANY. IN THE MEANTIME, HE LAUNCHED A GREAT PROGRAM TO MODERNIZE IRAN. I DON’T WANT TO GIVE YOU A LECTURE OF HISTORY, BUT THE EXTENT OF THE FRUSTRATION FELT BY THE IRANIANS FOLLOWING THE 2010 FLAWED ELECTION OF AMADINEJAH, LED THEM TO RIOTS AND PROTESTS AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT, IS THE SAME FELT BY THE COUNTRIES IN MIDDLE EAST AND FINDS ITS ROOTS IN THE MOSSADEQ NATIONALISM. DESPITE THIS STRONG POPULAR UNREST, THE IRANIAN REGIME OF AYATOLAH HAS BEEN ABLE TO REPRESS AND SUFFOCATE THE PROTESTS IN A BRUTAL MANNER, DUE TO ITS EFFICIENT AND ESTABLISHED SECURITY APPARATUS WHICH HAS BEEN IN PLACE SINCE THE DAYS THAT KHOMEINI TOOK POWER. THE FACT THAT THE PEOPLE OF TEHRAN WERE PROTESTING, DOESN’T MEAN THAT FOREIGN INTERVENTION WILL BE WELCOMED. IRAN IS NOT LIKE THE REST OF ARAB COUNTRIES DUE TO ITS DIVERSE POPULATION. A SMALL MINORITY SURROUNDING BY BIG MAJORITY: SHIITES ARE A MINORITY IN THE MUSLIM WORLD AND SUNNIS ARE THE MAJORITY. MORE THEY HAVE ALWAYS PERSECUTED THE SHIITE MINORITY,  IRANIANS AS A WHOLE ARE VERY NATIONALISTS, SEEK TO BE RECOGNIZED AS A FIRST CLASS SOCIETY, AND ARE PROUD OF THEIR LONG SUCCESSFUL HERITAGE. WE SHOULD REMEMBER WHAT HAPPENED IN THE IRAQ/IRAN WAR WHERE IRAQ ALMOST LOST (AND WE WERE BACKING IT).  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ANY KIND OF LAND OPERATION IN IRAN WILL BE A DISASTER BECAUSE THEY HAVE THREE LAYERS OF DEFENSE:

1)     THE ARMY;

2)     “GUARDIANS OF THE REVOLUTION” (PASDARAN) – SIMILAR TO A NATIONAL GUARD – WHO ARE EXTREMELY WELL TRAINED AND ARE RELIGIOUSLY AND POLITICALLY MOTIVATED;

3)     THE BASSIJI, CONCENTRATED IN THE COUNTRYSIDE, THIS ORGANIZATION IS SIMILAR TO A POPULAR MILITIA AND IT COVER THE ENTIRE TERRITORY OF IRAN.

HOW SERIOUS IS THE NUCLEAR THREAT POSED BY IRAN?

THE FOLLOWING SLIDES GIVE AN OVERVIEW ON HOW BIG IS THE OF IRANIAN EFFORT EXPECIALY IN THE URANIUM ENRICHMENT PROGRAM.

IN THIS SLIDE, YOU SEE THE FAMOUS GAS CENTRYFUGHES USED TO ENRICH THE URANIUM.  THIS STUFF TURNS AROUND GAS OF URANIUM AT 100,000 ROUND PER MINUTES AND THEY ARE CHAINED TOGETHER IN THOUSANDS OF LONG CASCADES. AT THE END OF THIS PROCESS, YOU GET THE BARS OF URANIUM U235 THAT CAN BE USED TO POWER NUCLEAR PLANTS AND/OR CREATE BOMBS. NOW ALL THE WESTERN INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES ARE TRYING TO DISCOVER WHERE THESE SITES ARE LOCATED BECAUSE IF YOU STOP THE ENRICHMENT PROCESS, YOU CAN PREVENT THE PRODUCTION OF THE ESSENTIAL COMPONENT TO CREATE A NUCLEAR BOMB

ARE THE IRANIAN SCIENTISTS ABLE TO WEPONIZE A NUCLEAR BOMB? THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT IRAN IS PROLIFERATING BUT IT IS STILL UNCLEAR AT WHICH POINT THEY HAVE ARRIVED. THE MAIN QUESTION THE EXPERTS ARE DEBATING IS: ARE THE IRANIAN SCIENTISTS ABLE TO WEAPONIZE A NUCLEAR BOMB? TO PASS FROM THE ENRICO FERMI REACTOR TO MODERN NUCLEAR BOMBS? THE ANSWER COME FROM THE PRESIDENT OF UNITED STATES ON OCTOBER 4th, 2013 IN AN INTERVEW WITH ASSOCIATED PRESS PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA SAYS U.S. INTELLIGENCE AGENCIES BELIEVE IRAN IS STILL “A YEAR OR MORE” AWAY FROM PRODUCING A NUCLEAR WEAPON, AN ASSESSMENT HE ACKNOWLEDGED WAS AT ODDS WITH ISRAEL.

IN CONCLUSION: MY OPINION IS THAT WE CAN NOT PREVENT IRAN TO BECOME A NUCLEAR POWER, SO WE HAVE VERY FEW OPTIONS IN A REALLY SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME:

– NEGOTIATION TO DISSUADE ?

– BOMBING TO PREVENT ?

I LEAVE THESE OPTIONS UP TO EACH ONE OF YOU AND I AM READY TO DISCUS IT BECAUSE WHATEVER WILL BE THE FINAL DECISION OF PRESIDENT OBAMA, IT WILL SERIOUSLY AFFECT OUR LIFE.

THANK YOU FOR YOUR KIND ATTENTION

AND I WILL BE HAPPY TO ANSWER TO YOUR QUESTIONS?